Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.304964 1.480795 1.667420 1.879814 2.114378 2.365055 2.652749
2025-01-12 1.032939 1.268333 1.534377 1.855666 2.231397 2.655079 3.167072
2025-01-19 0.820129 1.087387 1.408227 1.817888 2.322811 2.920330 3.676019
2025-01-26 0.689223 0.983692 1.357982 1.861220 2.511802 3.315535 4.373396
2025-02-02 0.578065 0.887967 1.304664 1.893542 2.690021 3.714173 5.112334
2025-02-09 0.479526 0.793390 1.239762 1.902058 2.837525 4.086716 5.851133
2025-02-16 0.401115 0.714454 1.185253 1.917257 2.994379 4.484157 6.655134
2025-02-23 0.322909 0.621674 1.096973 1.872099 3.060443 4.762082 7.318492
2025-03-02 0.252623 0.527975 0.992846 1.788766 3.060193 4.944248 7.860061
2025-03-09 0.210081 0.473883 0.944163 1.785317 3.178703 5.306057 8.683790
2025-03-16 0.171280 0.418353 0.884123 1.754749 3.249911 5.600442 9.426398
2025-03-23 0.150264 0.393597 0.875070 1.809461 3.463442 6.127563 10.553411
2025-03-30 0.118870 0.340609 0.807041 1.755429 3.497543 6.387281 11.306902
2025-04-06 0.097176 0.303700 0.764139 1.741924 3.600181 6.765801 12.274918
2025-04-13 0.078227 0.267865 0.716853 1.713307 3.672543 7.099231 13.192503
2025-04-20 0.067822 0.251253 0.708233 1.760349 3.887616 7.688670 14.566011
2025-04-27 0.058231 0.233952 0.694921 1.795840 4.083935 8.258740 15.940624
2025-05-04 0.048906 0.214237 0.672076 1.807654 4.234957 8.758245 17.223109
2025-05-11 0.041336 0.197384 0.653035 1.825127 4.398325 9.289954 18.590146
2025-05-18 0.032865 0.173751 0.611170 1.784036 4.437477 9.594821 19.573378
2025-05-25 0.024924 0.148013 0.557280 1.705704 4.389581 9.731359 20.260621
2025-06-01 0.020550 0.134593 0.535784 1.703723 4.504877 10.185701 21.547891
2025-06-08 0.016375 0.119610 0.505817 1.675363 4.558484 10.521982 22.632691